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the valve to keep it down, which would be disastrous. Force here is no remedy. Safety lies in letting it escape more freely; less, not more, pressure is the only policy. Lord Kitchener's activity in strengthening the British military position in India so ostentatiously is in the wrong direction. True, Russia is proclaimed the ostensible enemy feared, but the intelligent people of India know better. If all were known,

it is not Russian or any foreign attack that the military officials dread. It is the growing home-rule sentiment they consider dangerous to British control. It is against the people of India, not against the foreigner, that the legions are to be moved. It would be a fatal mistake for Britain to ignore the truth that intelligent natives take keenly to heart and brood over the fact that no native regiment is entrusted with artillery. The people of India fully recognize the significance of this. It invites serious thought as revealing mistrust. As long as it exists it will tell the story of foreign subjection, military occupation, a just conqueror, yet a conqueror and all that this implies. There is no Russian wolf or any other that can find desirable prey there, or which could capture it from the people of India if there were. The British army needs no strengthening to meet this imaginary Russian danger, neither to meet the danger of intensified native dissatisfaction, for the sure and only effective cure for that is to begin at once an enlargement of native participation in the government, holding out the promise that Britain is teaching them to become self-governing in due time. The problem is internal, not external. It is within, not without, India that the wolf lurks. So much for India and delusion number one.

There is a second British delusion, in the opinion of the writer, as wild as the first and equally baseless: Germany as a rival to Britain upon the sea. The

fear of German rivalry is well grounded, but it is on the land, not on the water. Her industrial development is a great fact in the world's history, which cannot fail to attract attention. She is already a great Empire, and rapidly growing greater. The 121,000 square miles of Britain cannot hope to support more than three-fifths of the people the 209,000 square miles of Germany can and will soon maintain. It cannot hope to produce as much iron and steel, nor to continue to increase its percentage of shipping, as rapidly as Germany. Although adding much more yearly, the percentage of increase of Germany must be greater, since she has comparatively so little shipping in the aggregate; but because Germany has increased and is to increase, it does not follow that Britain has decreased or will decrease thereby in either department. It simply means that two-thirds more territory will ultimately support two-thirds more people, and the people will produce so much more. Nothing that Britain can do will prevent this. It is highly probable that it is the progress of Germany as an industrial Power which has aroused the unreasonable jealousy of her as a naval, shipping, and colonial Power, which, as far as we can see, is baseless.

This "wolf" cry shares the exaggerations of Dame Rumor with her thousand tongues. Germany's alleged ambitions which alarm the timid, when compared with the means she has of accomplishing these alleged stupendous designs, are rendered positively chimerical. The supposed would-be mistress of the seas has a naval tonnage less than that of America, and according to the latest figures she has only twenty-four battleships against Britain's fifty-five, tonnage 204,581 against 732,480, more than three to one. The Statesman's Year Book, 1904, gives four armored cruisers against twenty,

thirty-nine protected cruisers against fifty-four, forty-seven destroyers against one hundred and thirty, one submarine against ten. No one ever questions the efficiency of the British navy. Ship for ship, it compares favorably, to say the least, with that of any other Power. So say the naval officers of other countries. This because, unlike the army, the British navy is a profession. Britain's shipping compared with Germany's is as ten and a half to two and a third million tons (1904), say nearly five to one.

The German "wolf" in both naval and shipping form is a very small one to make so great a cry. Only those who measure it can realize how groundless the alarm is.

It must clearly be only in union with another navy that the German navy can be seriously considered. Surely the most timid Briton can sleep soundly without fear of the French navy ever being so utilized, but even if it were, the two combined would still be inferior to that of Britain. So would it be were the Italian and the AustroHungarian combined with it. There formerly remained the Russian navy, .but the question of Russian naval support is relegated to the future. What possible combination is there, then, that should alarm the Briton? There cannot be one who imagines that America could be induced to become the ally of Germany or of any European Power, or combination of Powers, against the old home. No one can even imagine the issue upon which such a combina>tion could be based. On the contrary, if the invasion of Britain were ever imminent, a wild supposition, in all probability America would be found at her side. The Briton disturbed about what the German navy might do in combination with any possible ally imagines vain things.

The truth is that the naval disablement of Russia has thrown the pro

gramme adopted for increasing the British navy out of all proportion. We read of no less than eight battleships under construction. The increase of French and German navies is comparatively trifling in comparison. The Liberal Government, searching for a field for necessary reduction of expenditure, has it at hand in the navy. With a capacity for producing warships not less than that of Europe combined, Britain can safely follow America in deciding this year to build none, and at most one battleship per year hereafter for years to come; even this one may be found unnecessary.

It is in order to-day in Britain to exclaim against the increase of armaments and demand an agreement of the Powers to cease increasing. Each nation insists that it is compelled to increase its warships because others do. The real culprit, therefore, is the nation that leads the way. Britain has just launched a larger and more powerful ship than any hitherto known. Here she takes the lead. Germany, if we are to trust newspapers, has determined to build one to match the Dreadnought, and President Roosevelt has asked the American Congress to do so. The blame of enlargement is here solely upon Britain. No such monsters as proposed would have been built by either Germany or America if Britain had not challenged them. A second British battleship was launched the other day, the Agamemnon, said to be the greatest of all. Here is another challenge. The guilty one is he who sets the pace. The House passed the President's request for the one battleship to equal the Dreadnought. He had previously stated that America has now a navy large enough, and her policy hereafter is only to keep the present navy efficient, for which one battleship a year is sufficient. No increase in ships is desired. One hundred and thirty-five votes in Congress were cast

⚫ against building even the one monster asked for to maintain the efficiency of the present fleet, but it obtained a small majority. In the Senate, however, under the guidance of one of the wisest men in public life in America, Senator Hale, Chairman of the Naval Committee, it was resolved not to pass the Bill for the new ship until the complete plans thereof had been laid before the Committee and approved. This postpones the Bill for a year at least. The writer does not believe the President is at all grieved at the delay. Such is public sentiment in the Republic to-day upon naval expansion, and such the Government policy as announced by President Roosevelt. Here is an example which should not be lost upon Britain. If Britain, as the leading naval Power, were to call the attention of France and Germany to the declared policy of America, and intimate a willingness to join them in following America's example, much might be accomplished. If not, the Liberal peaceful party of Britain would have at least done what might be expected of it. It would be greatly to its credit that it had offered to co-operate with the Republic, thus throwing the united voice of the English-speaking race in favor of ceasing to increase the number

or

power of warships for mutual destruction.

There is another alleged source of apprehension in regard to Germany-her ambition to become a great Colonial Empire. The German Emperor is truly a great ruler. He has infused his patriotic fervor throughout the Empire and has become a commanding figure in the world, no titular sovereign but the real leader of his people. Ambitious for Germany undoubtedly. Why not? He is to be extolled for his intense devotion to his country, as King Edward is for his, but he is also credited, we believe justly, with great good sense: ambitious if you please,

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a half larger than the United Kingdom, has only 710 whites, of whom 638 areGermans. German South-west Africa, 322,450 square miles, much larger than the German Empire, has 200,000 belonging to Hottentot, Bushman, Bantu and Damara races; Europeans only 4682; number of Germans not given; the garrison 606 officers and men. Kiau-Chau Bay has a population of 1,200,000, whites only 3,735, number of Germans not given. German East Africa has 384,000 square miles, population 6,700,000, mostly mixed tribes of Bantu race; European population only 1437, of whom 1102 are Germans. Marshall Islands, twenty-four in number, population 15,000; Europeans only eighty-one, of whom Germans sixtyone. Bismarck Archipelago has only 203 Germans. In the whole German Colonial Empire there are not twenty thousand white people, certainly not fifteen thousand Germans.

The total trade of Germany in 1903with her Colonial Empire was:

Imports to Germany, 376,7501. Exports to Colonies, 1,221,3001. Britain's trade with the Channel Islands exceeds this. An enemy of Germany might well wish her more colonies. Britain could do worse than offer her a gift of more than one extensive area she has rashly taken under her wing in recent years, which can never be the home of Britons, nor anything but a source of loss and anxiety.

It is clear that Germany is incapable of becoming a colonizing Power. First, she has not the great surplus popula

tion needed. Fortunately, there is work in Germany for her increase, thanks to her Emperor in good measure, whose attention to and sense in business affairs are remarkable. Second, of her small surplus 96 per cent. go to America, mostly to relatives and friends already there who have sent for them because profitable work awaits. This startling fact should never be overlooked. Third, assuming that the German Emperor and his advisers have only average good sense, yet they must see that her emigration, such as that upon a vast scale to America, or in less volume to Southern Brazil, or even upon the smallest scale, inevitably results in the German emigrant becoming a cititzen of the country he settles in, and a peaceable, industrious, and loyal citizen he is. This is so even with the emigrant himself, who generally becomes naturalized, while his children born abroad are loyal citizens of their native land. Little trace of the German remains; they are soon merged in the prevailing type and lost to Germany.

Germany's present settlements in Africa and China can never be colonies, but only stations held by garrisons involving more expense than there can be return, and what must be more disappointing, the German element must remain a foreign element as the British is in India. Neither Germany nor any other Power can ever create an America or Canada or Australasia as Britain has, and which have made her the only possible "Mother of Nations," since her emigrants remain of the race. She stands and must stand alone in this sublime office.

That a Colonial Empire can be founded hereafter that will add to the strength of the European founder is a delusion. South America is closed. Europeans cannot colonize in the Far East or in India. They must ever remain a permanent invader, among but

not of the native people. There is not a known region to-day in the world open to colonization worth possessing which can be colonized by Europeans and become part of the parent European Empire.

We

We have had, even in America, faint echoes of the "wolf" cry of German Colonization in South America with resultant danger to the Monroe Doctrine. The able German Ambassador in Washington, Baron von Sternberg, has recently banished these for ever. commend this subject to the attention of those timid Britons who hear and even see the German wolf of Colonial Empire in their disordered dreams. The story is soon told. Emigration from the whole German Empire is not as great as that from Ireland, small as that now is. In 1900 it was only 22,000; 1901, 32,000; 1902, 36,000; 1903, 38,000; 1904, 27,924.

South America began to attract Germans about ninety years ago, when Brazil received its first German immigrants. To-day there are about two hundred thousand of German extraction, descendants of these immigrants, in its southern parts. These are now loyal Brazilians and excellent citizens lost to Germany. The Argentine Republic has attracted very few Germans. Out of a total of 2,279,000 immigrants between 1857 and 1895, there were only 25,000 Germans, but many of these are prominent citizens, all loyal to the core to the Republic, as the Germans in America are to her. Here is the point to be noted by European empirebuilders, "the offspring of the early settlers in South America have almost invariably renounced or lost their German citizenship and have embraced the citizenship of their adopted country. They have not the remotest thought of returning to their former homes." Such is the statement of the German Ambassador referred to.

In the published official news of the

German Government upon emigration, we read, "Emigration in the eyes of the law is an economic phase of the social life of the Nation which in itself is an economic loss to the Commonwealth. It should not receive Government aid regardless of the country of its final destination."

German emigration from 1871, the year of the unification of the Empire, up to 1894, was and still is almost wholly to America. Out of a total of 2,616,731, no less than 2,399,803 went there. In 1904, 26,085 went to America out of a total of 27,984. No trace of additional power has this added to Germany. On the contrary, it is all her loss and all America's gain. Germans cease to be German and become naturalized Americans.

To show to what lengths baseless fears can lead their victims when this cry of "Wolf!" is raised, we give the figures of German emigration to America, Brazil, and all other South American countries for the past seven years:

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So fades into nothingness the phantom of German colonization in South America and Africa or anywhere else. It will surely be impossible to raise the colonial "wolf cry" again in face of this complete exposure of the non-existence even of the wolf's shadow.

From the race point of view, our English-speaking race is the only important gainer by emigration, which flows almost wholly to America. One and a quarter million emigrants are expected this year, and probably a hundred thousand in Canada. The flow elsewhere consists only of a few thousands here and there, scarcely worth considering. What this means may be inferred from there being already in America, according to the 1900 census, twenty-six millions of German descent, merged or steadily merging in the dominant American English-speaking type, all traces of German origin rapidly fading away. So with other lands. All lose their emigrants. Britain only transplants hers, hence the certain supremacy of the English-speaking race at no distant date, because it is not only keeping its own increase, but absorbing the emigrants of other races as well.

Meanwhile the Briton who dreads either Russian "wolf" in India or elsewhere, or the German "wolf" on Sea, or in Colonial Empire, or in Shipping, is the victim of imaginary fears. No danger is to be apprehended from either, even if his navy were much less powerful and his army were considerably reduced.

Andrew Carnegie.

Skibo Castle: June 10, 1906.

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